The successful conclusion of the “merge” caused only a brief leap in the air among the investors. In the last few hours of trading, a new sell-off on the crypto market began, which also pushed Ethereum (ETH) south.
- Course (ETH): $1,492 (previous week: $1,716)
- Near-term resistances/targets: $1,560, $1,655, $1,723, $1,776, $1,825, $1,909, $2,013, $2,089, $2,164, $2,305, $2,448/$2,485, $2,733
- Short-term supports: $1,493, $1,477/1,425, $1,357, $1,320/1,238, $1,121, $1,063, $992, $935, $882, $720, $663/634, $531/489
- The wait is finally over! In the early morning hours of this Thursday, September 15th, the conversion of the Ethereum blockchain from Proof-of-Work (POW) to Proof-of-Stake (POS) as “The Merge” going into the cryptocurrency was successfully implemented.
- In the run-up, there had been plenty of speculation and theories on the part of investors as to whether and how much this historic event could affect the price development of the second largest cryptocurrency.
- Around eight hours after the update to the now POS-based Ethereum blockchain, it can be seen that the bears are relying on an impulse from the classic US stock markets to initiate a “sell the fact” movement.
- The bear camp waited to sell off until the historically negative “funding rates” of leveraged bets on the ether price turned back into positive territory. This is based on the funding rates of the highest-volume crypto exchange Binance.com.
Ethereum: Today’s course of the day
- Immediately after the end of the merge, the ether price rose to the previous day’s high of USD 1,655 in a first bullish reaction and attempted to break out of the horizontal resistance.
- Starting from this price level, the ether price slipped in the last few minutes of trading to the previous week’s low of USD 1,493 and threatens to break through this support.
- At the time of writing this article, the ether price is around 10 percentage points lower than the day before.
The weakness on the stock markets is a burden
- The renewed price weakness of the Nasdaq technology index in the late afternoon hours once again caused a significant price correction for the second largest cryptocurrency.
- Although the US Dollar Index (DXY) has also shown a slight price consolidation in the last few trading days, which actually had a positive effect on the crypto market, the prices of
- Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum and Co. continue to appear primarily in the direction of the US – To orient stock indices.
- In the short term, Ethereum seems to be out of breath after the strong performance in the last few months of trading.
- Although Ethereum is well supported on the underside in the area of USD 1,425, a fall below the previous month’s low would increasingly cloud the chart image again.
Looking at the indicators
- The sell-off in the last few hours caused the 4-hour chart’s RSI to correct back to oversold status. On the other hand, the MACD has now generated a fresh sell signal in this time period.
- However, since both indicators RSI and MACD in the daily chart have now also formed new short signals, it should become increasingly difficult for the buyer side to climb back towards the last high at USD 1,776.
- Should the ether price sell below USD 1,425 at the daily closing price, a continuation of the trend up to the support at USD 1,357 should be planned immediately.
Bullish Scenario (Ethereum)
- The Ethereum bulls seem to have run out of steam for now. The buyer side failed several times over the weekend and at the start of the week to overcome the resistance at USD 1,776 at the end of the day.
- Then, the massive sell-off on Tuesday, September 13th caused a pullback to the $1,560 support. The fact that this support level was dynamically broken down on the day of the merge is also to be rated bearish in the short term.
- However, as long as the ether price can form a higher low on a daily basis, there are still chances of a fresh attempt to increase in the coming days.
- If the buyer camp manages to send Ethereum back north in a timely manner above the cross resistance of EMA50 (orange) and horizontal resist at USD 1,654, there are still chances of an attack in the direction of the important resistance level at USD 1,723.
- If this mark is overcome without another price setback, and ideally the weekly high in the area of USD 1,776 is reached and broken upwards, a preliminary decision can be expected at USD 1,825.